The starting points for long-term forecasts of natural gas demand in Bosnia and Herzegovina are based on:

› Maximum utilization of the capacity of the existing transmission system
› Scope, size and location of potential natural gas market
› Capacity of natural gas storage facility in terms of operational and strategic    security of the system

The demand forecasts were prepared for three different scenarios (high, low and base) by comparing the economic indicators with the ones of the other countries (»Top-down« method) and by individual analysis by all consumption sectors (»Bottom-up« method). The demand forecasts for all three scenarios are similar according to both methods; for high scenario, the demand amounts to about 3 BCM, for base scenario about 2 BCM and for low scenario about 1.5 BCM.

The high growth scenario envisages a faster growth and takes into account environmental protection and the use of significant gas quantity for electricity generation.

As to the low growth scenario, the energy policy would be based on the use of domestic sources of energy with partial use of gas to generate electricity. According to the base scenario, financial support of 40% and a little higher share of gas in electricity generation are assumed.

If natural gas is introduced in the electricity sector, it is expected by 2020 that natural gas will be used not only in the existing power plants but also in the new plants for combined generation of electricity and heat (new CHP and CCGT plants).

Demand Forecasts

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